Episode 3: Kevin Mullin vs David Canepa
A Recommendation for District 15 conservatives
As many people know, I was the Republican candidate in the District 15 Congressional primary election in June. There were 7 candidates, and I finished 3rd, behind Assemblyman Kevin Mullin and Supervisor David Canepa, both Democrats. In our top-two system, that means I will not have the opportunity to offer my vision of constructive conservatism in the general election this year. But perhaps there will be an opportunity in the future.
For right now, though, the ballot on November 8th will feature a choice between two Democrats. And many of my conservative friends have asked for my opinion about what to do. So I’ll give you the answer up front, and then I’ll give the reasoning. I strongly encourage you to actually read the reasoning, because this is not a decision I came to lightly, and you shouldn’t come to it lightly either.
Here’s the answer: I think you should vote for David Canepa.
To any journalist reading this: I am NOT “endorsing” David Canepa. Please do not write that. His politics are too different from mine, and that will likely be true for any conservative in this district. Nevertheless, conservatives have a choice to make in this election, and I think the better choice for us is David Canepa.
Here’s why:
First, as conservatives we have a huge problem right now with getting our people to come out and vote. During my campaign I talked with many conservative voters who had already literally thrown their ballots away by the time I got to them, because they’d given up on the idea that their voices matter here. Fellow conservatives: even in a place this blue we are a fourth to a third of the electorate. We have to start flexing our strength, even if we’re not particularly excited about the choices, or we’re never going to find our way out of the political wilderness in California. Right now, that means choosing either David Canepa or Kevin Mullin, not sitting the election out.
Once you’ve decided to vote, the choice between the two is actually very simple:
If Kevin Mullin wins: conservatives will have zero influence and will be ignored for the next 15-30 years, just like Jackie Speier ignored us. [NOTE: if you object to this characterization of the Jackie Speier era, see the postscript below.]
If David Canepa wins: conservatives will have a tiny bit of influence, simply because David *needs* our votes to win. There’s no chance he beats Kevin Mullin without our votes.
Given those two choices, I’d always rather live in the world where we have a tiny bit of influence over the world in which we have zero influence. And to be clear, if David Canepa does win, we’ll only have a tiny bit of influence. David is a strong progressive, and we’re unlikely to approve of anything he does in Washington DC. But as I often said on the campaign trail, a Congressman also has a lot of influence on local politics, and if we cast our votes for David, then we have some chips we can cash in on local issues. I’ve spoken with David multiple times, and I think there are areas in property rights, taxes, and regulations where we might be able to find some common ground at the local or state level. And that is better than nothing, which is what we’ve had for the last 10-15 years.
One final note: I did not come to this decision because of any ill will toward Kevin Mullin. I met him on the campaign trail as well, and he seems like a nice guy. But as he reminded us more than once, he’s “been training for this [his] whole life”. His father was the Assemblyman in this district, and now Kevin is the Assemblyman. He worked for Jackie Speier, and now she’s anointed him her successor. That, ladies and gentlemen, is what machine politics looks like. Kevin’s campaign is premised on the idea of continuity, but for conservatives, continuity in this district means “continue to be politely ignored.” Thus, while Kevin Mullin is a nice guy who loves his country, he’s also the machine candidate in this race, and I simply can’t recommend that you vote for the Democratic party machine.
So the answer is simple: my fellow conservatives, vote David Canepa on November 8th. And then on November 9th let’s get back to work building our strength as a party here. If you’re looking for ways to do that, hit me up in the comments.
Postscript: A reader objected to my claim about Jackie Speier ignoring conservatives, so let me say a couple things. First, when she announced she was retiring, I put out a statement thanking her for her service to our district and acknowledging that being in Congress is a tough job. I have no strong feelings either for or against her. Nevertheless, in her 7 Congressional elections, I can find no evidence of her ever debating our candidate in any of those races, nor can I find evidence that she ever so much as even acknowledged the existence of our candidates. I also can find no evidence that she ever reached out to the Republican Party leadership here to try and create any bridges or dialogue. If evidence of any of this exists, send it to me and I’ll consider it.
The thing is, Jackie Speier is a smart and savvy politician, a 7-0 undefeated heavyweight in her party. That means she made a conscious choice not to invest any time in reaching out to us, presumably since she knew she would cruise to a 75-25 win in every election anyway. That was absolutely her right, and her raw political calculation that she didn’t need to reach out to us was correct, as her undefeated record indicates. But that’s why conservatives feel ignored here, and I’ve seen no evidence from Kevin Mullin that suggests he will deviate from Jackie’s approach.